South Australia Q1-2026 Climate Outlook Summary
| Category | Q1 2026 Expected State | Key Drivers (Modules) | Primary Impacts for South Australia |
|---|---|---|---|
ENSO | Fading La Niña through January–February, trending back to ENSO-neutral by late March | ENSOLink™, AxisPulse™, MassFlow™ | Early-quarter moisture support gradually weakens as Pacific signals normalise and influence shifts to non-ENSO drivers. |
WIND | Strengthening westerly & south-westerly flow, evolving toward a more variable mixed-flow pattern by late March. | WindPulse™ | Early-quarter supportive moisture transport, then increasing wind volatility and more frontal intrusions into southern districts. |
| RAIN | Neutral-to-slightly supportive early, becoming more variable and event-driven later in the quarter. | RainMAP™, ENSOLink™, WindPulse™ | Better rain chances early for eastern & central SA; late-quarter totals become patchier with higher storm-driven variability inland. |
TEMP | Neutral-to-warm leaning quarter with episodic heat pulses, especially inland. | TempMAP™, RainMAP™, WindPulse™ | Inland districts see the strongest heat spikes; coastal and southern areas remain more moderated until late in the quarter. |
1. ENSOLink™ — ENSO State Outlook (Q1-2026)
La Niña pattern beginning to weaken through January–February, with a gradual return toward ENSO-neutral conditions by late March.
Key ENSO Indicators:
La Niña pattern beginning to weaken through January–February, with a gradual return toward neutral conditions by late March. Confidence: 65–75%
- Tilt anomaly signal weakens through late summer
- Pacific-state energy redistribution trending toward neutral
- Subsurface cooling eases → reduced reinforcement of La Niña
- Cross-basin oscillation stabilising
Interpretation:
ENSOLink™ expects a fading La Niña still provides some early-quarter moisture support, but predictability shifts back toward non-ENSO drivers (WindPulse, TempMAP, RainMAP) by late Q1.
2. WindPulse™ — Wind State Outlook (Q1-2026)
Predicted Wind-State: Strengthening westerly and south-westerly flow across South Australia, gradually shifting toward a more variable mixed-flow pattern by late March.
Early Q1 (January):
- La Niña-driven pressure gradients still present.
- Expect modest to strong south-easterly and easterly influence inland, with enhanced westerlies along the Bight.
- Increased likelihood of short burst wind events with trough movement.
Mid Q1 (February):
- As La Niña weakens, the subtropical ridge begins to relax and reposition slightly southward.
- Winds shift more west-southwest, reducing the easterly dominance.
- More frontal intrusions into southern SA, especially coastal zones.
Late Q1 (March):
- Localised wind surges still possible during ridge–trough oscillations.
- ENSO signal moves toward neutral, allowing the jet to re-strengthen slightly in the lower latitudes.
- WindPulse indicates transition to mixed-flow variability, with alternating westerly and southerly pushes.
Interpretation:
WindPulse suggests an early-quarter window of supportive moisture transport, followed by increased volatility and reduced onshore coherence by late March.
3. TempMAP™ — Temp Outlook (Q1-2026)
Predicted Temperature Tendencies:
January:
- Slightly cooler than expected early due to fading La Niña
- Stronger cloud cover effects in some regions
February:
- Near-average temperatures
- Increased small heat spikes aligned with WindPulse volatility
March:
- Above-average warmth, especially inland SA
- Higher likelihood of heat pulses during late-month transitions
Interpretation:
TempMAP suggests Q1 temp behaviour begins mild, trends average mid-quarter, and ends warmer with more rapid temperature swings as ENSO decouples.
4. RainMAP™ — Rainfall Outlook (Q1-2026)
Predicted Rainfall Pattern:
January (strongest support):
- Slightly above-average rainfall probability
- Moisture transport still partially La Niña-driven
- Localised storm cell formation potential
February:
- Neutral to slightly positive rainfall influence
- Strong regional variation:
- Eyre Peninsula & Yorke Peninsula: slight support
- Murraylands: neutral
- Upper North: variability increases
March:
- Declining rainfall support as ENSO signal fades
- Increased dry-air intrusions from WindPulse state
- Higher risk of late-summer dry spells