South Australia Q4-2026 Climate Outlook Summary
| Category | Q4 2026 Expected State | Key Drivers (Modules) | Primary Impacts for South Australia |
|---|---|---|---|
ENSO | Transitioning warm-neutral → weak El Niño tendency late in the quarte | ENSOLink™, AxisPulse™, MassFlow™ | Dry-leaning bias develops; reduced Pacific moisture transport; more frequent warm-state wind structures; higher heat-stress propensity inland. |
WIND | Mixed-flow pattern with increasing westerly bursts; reduced easterly coherence | WindPulse™ | Higher storm volatility; intermittent frontal passages; inland dry-air intrusions; patchier moisture alignment. |
| RAIN | Below-average rainfall tendency; event-driven clusters rather than sustained systems | RainMAP™, ENSOLink™, WindPulse™ | More variable rainfall, stronger regional differences; increased late-season dryness; elevated drought-stress risk in inland districts. |
TEMP | Above-average warmth, especially inland; frequent heat pulses | TempMAP™, RainMAP™, WindPulse™ | Stronger inland heat extremes; warm nights; coastal moderation weakens; elevated fire-weather windows. |
1. ENSOLink™ — ENSO State Outlook (Q4-2026)
Warm-neutral shifting toward a weak El Niño tendency by late December, driven by weakening trade-wind structure, central-Pacific heat-content increase, and tilt-phase alignment. ENSOLink™ clustering shows growing warm-phase organisation through the quarter.
Warm-neutral transitioning toward a weak El Niño tendency by late December. Confidence: 62–70%`
Key ENSO Indicators:
- Subsurface warm-pool shift → central Pacific.
- Reduced Walker circulation coherence.
- Flattening of Pacific mass-flow gradients.
- Weak trade-wind rebound → warm-state indicator.
- ENSOLink™ clustering shows warm-phase convergence by late Q4.
Interpretation:
ENSO’s influence in Q3 is weak but directional — subtly reinforcing drier tendencies, reducing sustained moisture pathways, and encouraging warming late in the quarter.
2. WindPulse™ — Wind State Outlook (Q4-2026)
Predicted Wind-State: Mixed-flow regime with increasing westerly bursts + reduced easterly structure.
October:
- Westerly bursts increase storm volatility.
- Early-quarter fronts remain frequent.
- Reduced moisture transport into inland districts.
- Short-duration high-energy wind events possible.
November:
- Subtropical ridge sits further south → warm-phase signature.
- More variable wind direction, with dry-air intrusions.
- Enhanced frontal development over coastal & central SA.
- WindPulse™ shows weakening La Niña-style uplift patterns.
December:
- Late-season flow becomes erratic with strong gradients.
- Westerly–southerly alternations dominate.
- Jet-stream reorganises into warm-state configuration.
- Increased risk of hot, dry northerly pulses.
Interpretation:
WindPulse™ indicates a transition away from moist ENSO-neutral patterns into warm-state volatility, with less moisture alignment and more heat-driven pressure variability through December.
3. TempMAP™ — Temp Outlook (Q4-2026)
Predicted Temperature Tendencies:
October:
- Near-average to warm; warmer inland.
- Cloud breaks increase daytime heat.
- Warm nights increasing as RainMAP™ dries.
November:
- Above-average warmth; rising heat-pulse frequency.
- Early heat events ahead of troughs.
- Temperature moderation weakens as moisture declines.
December:
- Elevated fire-weather and heat-stress windows.
- Strong warm bias, especially inland.
- Higher frequency of short-duration heat spikes.
- Coastal moderation reduced under weak El Niño conditions.
Interpretation:
TempMAP™ shows a quarter dominated by warming signals, with heat pulses becoming more frequent as moisture support deteriorates. Inland regions show the strongest anomalies.
4. RainMAP™ — Rainfall Outlook (Q4-2026)
Predicted Rainfall Pattern:
October:
- Near-neutral to slightly dry tendency.
- Event-driven rainfall rather than sustained systems.
- Moisture delivery inconsistent.
November:
- Increasing dryness as warm-phase signals strengthen.
- Strong regional spread:
- Coastal SA: intermittent frontal support.
- Inland SA: drying bias + higher variability.
- RainMAP™ coherence weakens → reduced moisture alignment.
December:
- Stronger dependence on single-event rainfall bursts.
- Clear dry-leaning pattern, especially inland.
- Higher risk of extended dry spells.
- Thunderstorm activity becomes isolated + low-yield.