South Australia Q2-2026 Climate Outlook Summary
| Category | Q2 2026 Expected State | Key Drivers (Modules) | Primary Impacts for South Australia |
|---|---|---|---|
ENSO | ENSO-neutral dominant through April–May; weak warm-leaning shift possible late June. | ENSOLink™, AxisPulse™, MassFlow™ | Reduced ENSO influence early; late-quarter warm Pacific bias may favour slight moisture reduction inland. |
WIND | Mixed-flow pattern: alternating westerly/south-westerly surges + calmer ridging intervals. | WindPulse™ | Periodic moisture transport opportunities, but increasing wind volatility + storm-line variability. |
| RAIN | Neutral-to-slightly-drier pattern overall; event-driven rainfall clusters. | RainMAP™, ENSOLink™, WindPulse™ | Western + inland districts trend drier; patchy rain bursts SE, EP, YP; higher variability by mid–late quarter. |
TEMP | Near-average early; trending cooler mid-quarter; late warming pulses inland. | TempMAP™, RainMAP™, WindPulse™ | Cool changes behind fronts; inland late warm spells; moderated coastal temperatures. |
1. ENSOLink™ — ENSO State Outlook (Q2-2026)
ENSOLink™ shows the Pacific system in a stabilised ENSO-neutral regime, with overall weak influence on South Australian climate during most of Q2. Late-June signal hints at the earliest signs of a warm-leaning transition, but too weak to dominate seasonal behaviour.
Key ENSO Indicators:
Expected ENSO State: Neutral through April–May, with slight warm-leaning tendencies developing late June. Confidence: 60–70%
- Residual cool anomalies from Q1 continue weakening into April.
- Subsurface Pacific cooling stabilises → neutral energy redistribution.
- MassFlow™ shows decreasing momentum asymmetry across Niño 3.4.
- AxisPulse™ indicates no significant tilt-driven Niño forcing.
- Late-June thermocline behaviour begins to lean slightly warm.
Interpretation:
ENSOLink™ suggests ENSO will have minimal direct influence through most of Q2. The weak warm-leaning signal late June may favour slightly reduced rainfall probability inland and a marginal warming bias, but effects remain subtle.
2. WindPulse™ — Wind State Outlook (Q2-2026)
Predicted Wind-State: A mixed-flow quarter, alternating between westerly/south-westerly surges and quieter ridge-dominated intervals. Increasing volatility expected through May–June
April (Early Q2):
- Continued mixed westerly + southerly influence from late Q1.
- Moisture opportunities during early frontal passages.
- Lower volatility early, with cleaner onshore flow in coastal zones.
May (Mid Q2):
- Strengthening westerlies across the Bight increase frontal frequency.
- Elevated storm-line shifts favour inland variability.
- Ridge–trough oscillations intensify → more short-burst wind events.
June (Late Q2):
- Alternation between vigorous westerly pushes and stalled, moisture-poor ridges.
- Jet-stream variability increases due to neutral ENSO → higher unpredictability.
- More cut-off low potential, especially near SE and eastern districts.
Interpretation:
WindPulse™ implies a quarter of dynamic but inconsistent moisture transport, strong enough for episodic rainfall but not persistent wet phases. Variability increases toward June.
3. TempMAP™ — Temp Outlook (Q2-2026)
Predicted Temperature Tendencies:
April:
- Near-average temperatures across SA.
- Cooler bursts following frontal activity.
- Milder coastal conditions from stable moisture layers.
May:
- Slight cooling trend develops inland.
- Cloudier periods during westerly phases reduce diurnal swings.
- Occasional warm breaks between frontal systems.
June:
- Larger temperature contrasts between inland and coastal regions.
- Increased inland warm pulses during ridge rebuilds.
- Coastal and southern districts maintain cooler, moderated temperatures.
Interpretation:
TempMAP™ shows a cool-leaning mid-quarter, bookended by more average early conditions and late warming pulses inland. Coastal zones remain buffered, while inland locations exhibit stronger fluctuations.
4. RainMAP™ — Rainfall Outlook (Q2-2026)
Predicted Rainfall Pattern:
April:
- Neutral rainfall tendency with some early frontal support.
- Best opportunities in southern and coastal regions.
- Inland still variable and more event-driven.
May:
- Emerging split-pattern rainfall:
- EP / YP / SE: Moderate support during westerly phases.
- Murraylands / Mid North: Increasing variability.
- Far North: Reduced moisture coherence.
- Frontal enhancement possible during strong WindPulse™ surges.
June:
- RainMAP™ points to rising volatility across eastern and northern districts.
- Rainfall support generally weakens.
- Higher chance of dry spells inland.